{"id":41928,"date":"2022-04-12T09:16:26","date_gmt":"2022-04-12T07:16:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/?p=41928"},"modified":"2022-05-16T15:25:23","modified_gmt":"2022-05-16T13:25:23","slug":"politika-cnb-ma-destruktivni-charakter-uz-zase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/41928","title":{"rendered":"Politika \u010cNB m\u00e1 destruktivn\u00ed charakter. U\u017e zase"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ekonomka Ilona \u0160vihl\u00edkov\u00e1 m\u00edn\u00ed, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 kroky centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky znovu zapadaj\u00ed do vzorce \u010desk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky: reagov\u00e1n\u00ed na krize prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm deformac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 pak z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u201enapo\u0159\u00e1d\u201c.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Spor o inflaci, jej\u00ed ko\u0159eny a n\u00e1sledn\u011b \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed vysok\u00e9 infla\u010dn\u00ed dynamiky zapo\u010dal ji\u017e p\u0159ed volbami. \u010cten\u00e1\u0159 se nicm\u00e9n\u011b nemus\u00ed ob\u00e1vat, \u017eurnalistick\u00e9ho primitivismu ve form\u011b \u201eBabi\u0161ovy drahoty\u201c (nebo \u201ePutinovy drahoty\u201c) se v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku nedo\u010dk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Je patrn\u00e9, \u017ee vysok\u00e1 infla\u010dn\u00ed dynamika tr\u00e1p\u00ed \u0159adu zem\u00ed, vid\u00edme to ji\u017e v cel\u00e9 EU, ale tak\u00e9 ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. Spojovat ji tedy p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b s b\u00fdval\u00fdm \u010desk\u00fdm premi\u00e9rem je ekonomicky chybn\u00e9 (a\u017e trapn\u00e9). Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed konfliktem na Ukrajin\u011b rostly dramaticky ceny paliv i dal\u0161\u00edch prim\u00e1rn\u00edch komodit. Po vypuknut\u00ed konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b se za\u010daly zvy\u0161ovat d\u00e1le ceny p\u0161enice a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozornosti se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 dostupnosti hnojiv a jejich cen\u00e1m. Jsou to toti\u017e pr\u00e1v\u011b hnojiva, kter\u00e1 tvo\u0159\u00ed spojovac\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek mezi cenami potravin a energetick\u00fdm trhem.<\/p>\n

\u010cNB za\u010dala jako jedna z prvn\u00edch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank reagovat pom\u011brn\u011b razantn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem a za\u010dala zvy\u0161ovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Plat\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1kladov\u00e1 inflace \u2013 a o tu se dominantn\u011b jedn\u00e1 \u2013 je pro ekonomiku jednou z nejhor\u0161\u00edch zpr\u00e1v. Stejn\u011b tak plat\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159edstava, \u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami \u201ep\u0159ebijeme\u201c v\u00fdvoj cen paliv \u010di p\u0161enice, je absurdn\u00ed. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby funguj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e tak, \u017ee ekonomiku \u201ezchlad\u00ed\u201c (tj. sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst se v\u0161emi dal\u0161\u00edmi d\u016fsledky, v\u010detn\u011b nezam\u011bstnanosti) tak, \u017ee se t\u00edm omez\u00ed agreg\u00e1tn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka a s t\u00edm i popt\u00e1vka po palivech a dal\u0161\u00edch komodit\u00e1ch. Je nesmysl se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee v takov\u00e9to situaci m\u016f\u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka jako \u010cNB n\u011bco zmoci se sv\u011btov\u00fdmi cenami. V dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu je mo\u017eno reagovat r\u016fzn\u00fdmi zp\u016fsoby \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad pos\u00edlen\u00edm potravinov\u00e9 a energetick\u00e9 sob\u011bsta\u010dnosti (v\u010detn\u011b zastaven\u00ed nesmysln\u00e9ho p\u0159enosu n\u011bmeck\u00fdch cen do \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky), pos\u00edlen\u00ed strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f, podpora energetick\u00fdch \u00faspor atd.<\/p>\n

Ke konci minul\u00e9ho roku se mohlo zd\u00e1t, \u017ee \u010cNB pomoc\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb (a t\u00edm i \u00farokov\u00e9ho diferenci\u00e1lu, proto\u017ee z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba ECB je st\u00e1le na nule) chce pos\u00edlit kurz koruny v\u016f\u010di euru. K tomu tak\u00e9 do\u0161lo, i kdy\u017e kv\u016fli relativn\u00ed bl\u00edzkosti v\u016f\u010di konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b koruna na chv\u00edli oslabila, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e \u010cNB za\u010dala v jej\u00ed prosp\u011bch intervenovat.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed m\u00e1me z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu na 5 %. \u010ceho t\u00edm \u010cNB chce proboha dos\u00e1hnout? Zabrzd\u00ed t\u00edm snad propad kupn\u00ed s\u00edly? Pokud se pod\u00edv\u00e1te na \u00faro\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nab\u00edzej\u00ed banky, pak na to m\u016f\u017eete zapomenout, nelze hledat v r\u00e1mci konzervativn\u00edho bankovnictv\u00ed n\u011bco, co m\u00e1 v\u00fdnos nad 13-14%, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt inflace v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 dob\u011b (pak u\u017e zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed jen rizikov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed produkty, jako t\u0159eba komodity, co\u017e ale t\u011b\u017eko po\u017eadovat od b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho st\u0159adatele).<\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee mzdy a platy vzrostou natolik, aby nedo\u0161lo k dramatick\u00e9mu (!) a \u010deskou vl\u00e1dou tragicky podce\u0148ovan\u00e9mu propadu kupn\u00ed s\u00edly, je zcela naivn\u00ed. Je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee mzdy a platy se re\u00e1ln\u011b propadaj\u00ed a j\u00e1 osobn\u011b se velice ob\u00e1v\u00e1m dopadu na mzdovou konvergenci.<\/p>\n

Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby po\u0161kozuj\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst, p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k prodra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu a \u010din\u00ed hypot\u00e9ky naprosto nedostupn\u00fdmi i pro st\u0159edn\u00ed vrstvy. Douf\u00e1m, \u017ee v \u010cNB nikoho nenapadne j\u00edt na sazby p\u0159es 10 %, co\u017e by vedlo \u2013 i z hlediska zadlu\u017een\u00ed dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed a st\u00e1tu k ekonomick\u00e9mu zhroucen\u00ed. Copak d\u00e1v\u00e1 takov\u00e1to politika smysl?<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj v\u00fdnos\u016f na desetilet\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy<\/strong><\/h1>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Pokud se \u010cNB domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee mus\u00ed jednat, a \u017ee si na rozd\u00edl od ECB nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit politiku nulov\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb (kter\u00e9 v krizov\u00e9 situaci \u2013 i energetick\u00e9 \u2013 d\u00e1vaj\u00ed mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed smysl), pak se nab\u00edz\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edt p\u0159\u00edmo kurzov\u00fd kan\u00e1l. Je mnohem vhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sna\u017eit se brzdit inflaci (n\u00e1kladovou) p\u0159\u00edmo, tedy p\u0159es posilov\u00e1n\u00ed koruny.<\/p>\n

\u010cNB sed\u00ed v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b na rekordn\u011b obrovsk\u00fdch rezerv\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 bohu\u017eel nevznikly jako p\u0159ebytky b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dtu, ale jsou poz\u016fstatkem politiky tzv. asymetrick\u00e9ho kurzov\u00e9ho z\u00e1vazku, kter\u00fd po mnoho let dr\u017eel korunu na \u00farovni 27 K\u010d za euro. \u010cNB nemus\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edvat \u00farokov\u00fd diferenci\u00e1l a m\u00edsto toho m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159\u00edmo intervenovat na pos\u00edlen\u00ed koruny, co\u017e infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky zbrzd\u00ed, z\u00e1rove\u0148 to p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed korunu v\u00edce sm\u011brem k parit\u011b kupn\u00ed s\u00edly. Jist\u011b, export\u00e9\u0159i le\u017e\u00edc\u00ed pod mzdov\u00fdm stropem, nebudou zrovna nad\u0161en\u00ed. Spol\u00e9hat nicm\u00e9n\u011b na slabou korunu t\u0159icet let po transformaci, je politika rozvojov\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed: v\u00fdvoj inflace v \u010cR a na Slovensku. Zopakujme: aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 m\u00edra v \u010cR je 5 %, na Slovensku 0 %. M\u00e1 snad n\u011bkdo pocit, \u017ee se Slovensko ekonomicky rozkl\u00e1d\u00e1, proto\u017ee m\u00e1 nulovou z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu?<\/p>\n

Sama jsem dlouhodobou zast\u00e1nkyn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 suverenity, kam pat\u0159\u00ed i samostatn\u00e1 m\u011bna a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka, nicm\u00e9n\u011b veden\u00ed \u010cNB opakovan\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee nesta\u010d\u00ed samostatn\u00e1 m\u011bna, ale tak\u00e9 nutn\u011b n\u00e1rodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed a obecn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed strategie rozvoje zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 u n\u00e1s nicm\u00e9n\u011b absentuje ji\u017e t\u0159icet let.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj m\u00edry inflace v \u010cR<\/strong><\/h1>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj m\u00edry inflace v SR<\/strong><\/h1>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u010cR pat\u0159\u00ed mezi zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 v kriz\u00edch (viz tak\u00e9 pandemie) reaguj\u00ed velmi \u0161patn\u011b, a \u010dasto si do ekonomick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed \u201enapo\u0159\u00e1d\u201c neskute\u010dn\u00e9 deformace, sta\u010d\u00ed p\u0159ipomenout velmi chybn\u00e1 da\u0148ov\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed u\u010din\u011bn\u00e1 v pr\u016fb\u011bhu roku 2021. Ekonomick\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed je mo\u017en\u00e9 \u010dasov\u011b omezit, a v ide\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edt krize pro struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed posun.<\/p>\n

\u201eBi\u010d\u201c siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed koruny je jedn\u00edm z takov\u00fdch faktor\u016f. Dal\u0161\u00ed je mo\u017enost vyu\u017eit\u00ed cenov\u00e9 regulace, v\u010detn\u011b tzv. v\u011bcn\u00e9ho usm\u011br\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed cen. Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda Ministerstvo financ\u00ed odm\u00edt\u00e1 tuto mo\u017enost ideologicky, nebo proto\u017ee nem\u00e1 odborn\u00edky, kte\u0159\u00ed by byli schopni se pod\u00edvat na to, jak dan\u00fd trh \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e \u010derpac\u00edch stanic, nebo tak\u00e9 potravinov\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f funguje. To, \u017ee v \u010cR jsou u \u0159ady potravin i p\u0159edm\u011bt\u016f denn\u00ed spot\u0159eby vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny ne\u017e v N\u011bmecku (co\u017e je vzhledem ke mzdov\u00e9mu rozd\u00edlu do nebe volaj\u00edc\u00ed!), p\u0159eci nen\u00ed v\u011bc, kter\u00e1 se objevila v souvislosti s konfliktem na Ukrajin\u011b. Je mnoho shnil\u00e9ho v \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice, a krize otev\u00edr\u00e1 mo\u017enost pod\u00edvat se \u201edo st\u0159ev\u201c a pokusit se naj\u00edt \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 u\u010din\u00ed \u010deskou ekonomiku v\u00edce odolnou v\u016f\u010di kriz\u00edm a v\u00edce soci\u00e1ln\u011b stabiln\u00ed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ekonomka Ilona \u0160vihl\u00edkov\u00e1 m\u00edn\u00ed, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 kroky centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky znovu zapadaj\u00ed do vzorce \u010desk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky: reagov\u00e1n\u00ed na krize prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm deformac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 pak z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39458,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[178,2449,129],"class_list":["post-41928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-komentare","tag-cnb","tag-deformace","tag-krize"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/3P1A4083-na-sirku.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41928"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41928\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41952,"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41928\/revisions\/41952"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39458"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casopisargument.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}